2010-04-30

控制之网

控制之网是第一世界公司和机构用来统治全球经济的。简单地说,第三世界国家在金融、政治和军事上均陷入于第一世界的控制之网中,而且极难逃脱。

全球帝国中金钱和权力的流动过程排列:

-〉将贷款出售给第三世界国家
-〉通过隐秘的离岸银行帐户(Offshore Banking Account)再将黑钱流回第一世界
-〉债务主导的发展模型在减少贫困方面的失败
-〉高额未偿付债务的累积
-〉国际货币基金组织摧毁发展中国家经济,确保得到资源的军事干预。

雄心勃勃的地方银行及其年轻的银行家们向发展中国家兜售贷款,用来帮助它们建设那些资金去向可疑的项目,却留下大批帐单让这些国家的老百姓来偿还。

债务使第三世界国家处于第一世界的控制之下,依赖援助、债务重组和债务滚动而生存,已经谈不上真正的发展了。

它们被迫重构经济、重写法律,以满足 IMF 结构调整计划和世界银行制约条款所开出的条件。它们不可能像美国一样控制世界储备货币,也不能做到长时间的入不敷出还能避免金融危机。

经典案例:菲律宾

马科斯在1986年垮台,而菲律宾的对外债务也超过了280亿美元。这其中6.75亿美元来自马科斯亲信控制的公司和由政府机构担保的债务。

就像埃伦奥古斯丁在“菲律宾,世界银行,一场冲向尽头的竞赛”中写的那样,现在菲律宾人民仍然在努力偿还马科斯时代遗留的债务。



相关: 
经济杀手
全球帝国之北方和南方

腐败、债务及其内幕
Corporatetocracy

2010-04-29

Corporatetocracy

Corporatocracy or corpocracy is a form of government where corporations, conglomerates, and/or government entities with private components, control the direction and governance of a country.

Corporatetocracy - 金权政体指的是那些掌管着全球最大公司、强权政府和历史上第一次真正出现的全球帝国的权利集团。

作为“金权政体”政策的结果,平均每天有 24000 人死于饥饿;数万人,尤其是孩子,死于本可治疗的疾病,只因为他们支付不起医药费;世界一半以上的人口每天生活费低于2美元,在许多地方这点钱根本不够支付基本生活需求。本质上,我们的经济体系是依靠人类农奴和奴隶剥削的现代版本。

每次你读、听、看一则关于国际事件的新闻报道时,请带着怀疑的眼光。请记住,这些媒体为“金权政体”所拥有,或至少受到其财务支持。请挖掘这些表面之下的真相。

我们必须结束这些。你和我必须做正确的事情。

我知道自己拥有一些技巧和许多机会。这些你的和我的也许不同,但它们同样有力。我催促你为你的生活设定一个基本目标,将这个世界变成一个更美好的世界,不仅是为了你自己,也为了所有其他人。

为实现这个目标,请每天至少做一件事,想想每天死于饥饿的 24000 人,然后以一生的时间投身于改变这个状况的事中。报纸、杂志、地方和全国的组织代表们、你的朋友、做或没有做着正确事情的生意人,请给他们写信或发邮件吧;参加电视节目;有意识地选择购物;不要购买那些推动了当代奴律制形成的商品;自持非盈利机构,因为他们帮助传递信息、保护环境、保卫民权、抵抗饥饿和疾病以及致力促成一个更健全的世界;做自愿者;去学校辅导孩子们;和你的邻居组成讨论小组-所有可能采取的行为是无止境的,只是看你自己想像力有多广了。

我们所有人都有一些能力和激情去做贡献,但最重要的事情是走出去,行动起来。

I am only one.But still I am one. I cannot do everything, But still I can do something; And because I cannot do everything, I will not refuse to do the something that I can do. ~Edward Everett Hale

Related: Oligarchy and The Bilderberg Group

Resources of Hopes:

New Internationalist www.newint.org
CorpWatch www.corpwatch.org

2010-04-28

A Game As Old As Empire

如果你已看过“货币战争”与“金权天下”,建议你再看

1. Confession of An Economic Hit Man

2. A Game As Old As Empire

3. Rich Dad's Conspiracy of the Rich: The 8 New Rules of Money


阅读时,请用心思考和体会所描述的这些行为对世界和我们的子孙后代的含义。结合中西方不同作者的观点,审慎当今世界局势,以更宏观及客观的角度进行思考与分析,再看回马来西亚近20年发展与当今局面,我想你会有更深层的认知与关切。

A Game As Old As Empire 中文版:



书名译为 “古老的帝国游戏” 是否更恰当?

2010-04-27

Big lie No. 5: We're bankers, and we're here to help you

Our banking sector serves as the "blood supply" for our capitalist economic system, maintains media mogul and real-estate billionaire Mort Zuckerman. And it's true: Banks take risks funding Silicon Valley startups and other businesses, making our economy one of the most innovative and vibrant in the world. Most of them do help us.

But sadly, a lot Wall Street seems to have turned this idea on its head. All those complex, repackaged mortgage-backed securities, for example, didn't raise a penny to build a single factory. And they weren't all about getting people into homes either. Some of the instruments they were trading were little more than wagers on whether someone else's mortgage would ever be paid.

So when you now hear bankers and their lobbyists roll out the old blood-supply excuse to resist tougher regulation, don't buy it.

If better regulation removes the pure gambling and makes our financial system safer, we're all better off -- even if it means the bankers earn a little less.

2010-04-26

He got rich -- and they lost their homes

"There's no question we made money in these transactions," said a Paulson spokesman in a statement. "However, all our dealings were through arms-length transactions with experienced counterparties who had opposing views based on all available information at the time. We were straightforward in our dislike of these securities but the vast majority of people in the market thought we were dead wrong and openly and aggressively purchased the securities we were selling."

Some of the people whose mortgages underpinned Paulson's wager were themselves taking a gamble -- that U.S. housing prices would continue to march upward, making it possible for them to eventually pay off loans they couldn't afford.

In early 2007, Paulson's company was identifying different bonds from across the country that it wanted to place bets against. Paolo Pellegrini, Paulson's right-hand man, began working with Goldman trader Fabrice Tourre to choose bonds for the Abacus portfolio, say people familiar with the deal.

Abacus was a "synthetic" CDO, meaning that it didn't contain any actual bonds. Rather, it allowed Paulson's company to buy insurance on bonds it didn't own. If the bonds performed well, Paulson would make a steady stream of small payments -- much like insurance premiums. If they performed poorly, Paulson would receive potentially large payouts.

According to the SEC complaint, Paulson especially wanted to find risky subprime adjustable-rate mortgages that had been given to borrowers with low credit scores who lived in California, Arizona, Florida, and Nevada -- states with big spikes in home prices that he reckoned would crash.

2010-04-25

5 lies the big banks keep telling us (2)

Big lie No. 4: We get paid like rock stars, but we're worth it

When I ask companies why U.S. CEOs get such huge pay compared with their counterparts elsewhere in the world, the answer is invariably the same: We need to pay that much to attract the best performers.

But the mortgage meltdown has proved that to be a big lie. Paying CEOs well didn't keep these banks safe.

It's not just the CEOs, of course. Huge pay trickled down through the executive ranks to traders, all of whom who seem to have been too busy chasing short-term profits to focus on (or care about) the long-term risks. It's a case study in what the advocates have told me for years is wrong with the way executives get paid.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/5-lies-the-big-banks-keep-telling-us.aspx?page=3

2010-04-24

5 lies the big banks keep telling us

There's a little truth in each excuse, but none is completely honest.

Big lie No. 1: No one could have known

Consider this scenario: You work at the top of a key bank on Wall Street. You hire the smartest guys from the best schools. You get paid big bucks to know your business better than anyone else. And warning signs are everywhere. When it goes bad, can you really say you didn't know?

Yet time and again, we've heard something similar to this from top bankers.

With the crisis looming, the bank had placed big bets against, or shorted, the mortgage-backed securities it was selling to customers, a maneuver Angelides says is akin to "selling a car with faulty brakes and then buying an insurance policy on the buyer of those cars."

relaxed lending standards and a speculative housing market bubble are dangerous.

In September 2004, the FBI publicly warned that a potential epidemic of rampant mortgage fraud could cause "the next S&L crisis," referring to the huge savings-and-loan meltdown of the 1980s. In early 2005, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times began running articles warning that relaxed lending standards and a speculative housing market bubble were dangerous.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/5-lies-the-big-banks-keep-telling-us.aspx

Big lie No. 2: It's someone else's fault

Wall Street is quick to point the finger elsewhere but reluctant to admit much fault.

Christopher Whalen, the managing director of bank watchdog group Institutional Risk Analytics, finds attempts by Wall Street bankers to shift the blame to the ratings agencies particularly galling. That's because bankers gamed the system by selecting subprime-mortgage-backed bonds to get the highest ratings possible on debt instruments made from them. "They would say, 'Hey, if we do it this way, what rating will you give me?'" Whalen says.

Certainly, there's a lot of blame to go around in this mess, starting with those who were buying more home than they could afford and the loan officers who egged them on. Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs) and Freddie Mac (FRE, news, msgs) took too many risks, and some Securities and Exchange Commission staffers were reportedly surfing for porn when they should have been looking for fraud.

But no one forced Wall Street to turn bad loans into fancy investment vehicles and sell them around the world, or leverage themselves to ridiculous levels in the process. Says Whalen: "Of course it was the banks' fault."

Big lie No. 3: Our sophisticated customers should have known better

It's true that that when high-end customers asked a bank for a specific kind of mortgage-backed debt instrument to bet on, the bank was providing a legitimate service by producing it -- even if the bank didn't think it was a good bet.
It's another thing if the bank doesn't reveal what went into the design of the debt instrument. That's what the SEC accuses Goldman Sachs of doing.

The overall question here is whether some of the many mortgage-backed securities created by Wall Street were so complex and confusing that no one could have been expected to figure out what was in them or what they were worth. "It is unfair to say these people should have known because the dealers were trafficking in securities that were so opaque and so deceptive that no one could know," Whalen says.

Fabrice Toure, a Goldman trader at the center of the SEC case, in a now-public e-mail described one index created to help value mortgage-backed securities was "like Frankenstein" and "the type of thing which you invent telling yourself: 'Well, what if we created a "thing," which has no purpose, which is absolutely conceptual and highly theoretical and which nobody knows how to price?'"

With that sort of product, can you really say that customers "should have known better"? (And in the end, real people's homes were involved. Read "He got rich -- and they lost their homes" for more on that.)

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/5-lies-the-big-banks-keep-telling-us.aspx?page=2

2010-04-23

Take The First Step

The idea is to grow yourself into a successful person. your outer world is merely a reflection of your inner world. You are the root; your results are the fruits. Having a good job will not make you rich, it merely gives you a living, some people make a good living but no life. Think & Grow Rich. Work more on yourself than on your job...

Take The First Step

Success starts with having a plan… a list of your goals and your dreams.

Learn and apply the proven principles needed to achieve each one of them… and a way to map out your journey.

Let’s call it Your Personal Entrepreneurial Strategy.

Your Personal Entrepreneurial Strategy is an exercise to help you create clarity between your relationship with money, people and business… by identifying your behaviors, attitudes, skills, experience, know-how, contacts and leadership tendencies.

In taking this first step of building your strategy, you will have placed yourself ahead of 95% of the entrepreneurs in the world who have never taken the time to think deeply about themselves, their goals and true desires.

It all starts with a simple plan… your personal strategy, and all you need is a desire to start your journey.


Dive deeply into the inner workings of the wealthy. Discover the details of the BIG breakthrough they had that turned them from a struggling small business owner into a multi-million dollar success. Find out what changed the way they do business… and learn to master it yourself.

Imagine being permanently re-wired to think like a multi-millionaire!

最终极资产
http://howtze.blogspot.com/2010/02/blog-post_07.html

2010-04-22

Bank Robbers

There are two types of bank robbers. One type robs the bank from the outside, the other robs banks from the inside. All bankers steal your wealth from the inside - legally.

One of the more benign ways that banks steal your money is via the "fractional-reserve system".

For example, if you put $10 in your savings and the bank lends out $100 based on the ability to lend out $10 for every $1 in deposits it holds, that causes inflation. And inflation robs your savings of purchasing power. On top of that, the bank pays you 2 percent on your $10 and collects up to 20 percent or more on the $100 it lends out.

This is one way your banker robs your wealth from inside the bank.

Goldman just took bank robbery to a more sophisticated level, and now Germany, England, and pension funds are upset.

Just as the SEC and courts found no wrong doing with AIG, I doubt much if anything will be done about Goldman. A few lower-level executives may be fired and punished, but once politicians, the press, and the public tire of the story, the banks will be back to business as usual.

So, is Goldman guilty? It depends on the rules you play by.

According to banking rules, Goldman was doing what it always does, giving their customers what they want. In this case, some customers wanted to bet long (that the mortgages would pay off) and others wanted to be short (that the mortgages would fail).

This is why it's important to be familiar with the New Rules of Money. Once you know the old and new rules of money, you can decide which rules of money you will play by.

2010-04-21

Is Goldman Guilty?

"When the tide goes out, you find out who has been swimming naked." ~ Warren Buffet.

History does repeat, and Goldman's fraud is just history performing the same song but with different singers. After every crisis, witch-hunts increase and politicians shout, "We must make sure this doesn't happen again."

While today's charges will damage Goldman's reputation, and some clients and employees will leave, the net effect is that not much will change.

While the politicians and the press make Goldman a scapegoat, the banking system remains unchanged. There may be some financial reforms passed, but nothing will be substantially different.

"Too big to fail" means the bank has politicians and the government on their side. Politician decide which banks live and which banks die. This is called Crony Capitalism.

2010-04-20

Sin Chew Opinion Notes (Culture)

在排他的心理影响下,人们总是觉得自己才是最优秀的,自己的文化才是最伟大的,自己的道德才是真正的道德。就因为每个人都有着同样的思维,战争便开始了。

德国与日本发动了第二次世界大战,因为他们都觉得自己是最优秀的民族。澳洲人把原住民的孩子捉到教会学校,也是因为白人觉得他们的文化才是正确的。

~ 大潘

沉迷網絡書寫失靈

現在的青少年生活在數位時代,生活、學習、交友、娛樂等,大都從網絡取得。過度依賴電腦,造成書寫困難。例如,網絡上還有人寫著:“一打開門,看到一坨狗屎,讓我大吃一斤。”許多老一輩的人看了十分驚訝,大吃一驚變成大吃一“斤”,如果真的吃了一斤還得了?

同樣是網絡世代,不忘傳統,即可在中華文化中找到新路;如果沉迷其中,就得不償失了。

http://opinions.sinchew-i.com/node/14358

2010-04-19

Sin Chew Opinion Notes

羅正文 - 克林頓的演技

電影戲劇是虛構的,但政治卻是真實的,影響許多人的生活。

未來世界的政治會不會變成政治人物表演的舞台?而如果作為全球最大權力核心的美國總統為挽回其聲譽而發動戰爭表演,世局會變成甚麼模樣?

對付恐怖主義的方法有很多,但以暴制暴對付回教恐怖份子,其效果恐怕相當有限,這是克林頓在回憶錄中也不得不承認的。

我當然無法斷言克林頓是為了轉移性醜聞注意力而發射飛彈,但我卻不能不懷疑選擇蘇丹與阿富汗這兩個美國人民非常陌生的國家,竟然與電影《桃色風雲搖擺狗》如此相像;

我也無法說克林頓不是為了國家尊嚴與保護人民而發動攻擊,但卻不能不聯想到常有“大逆轉”性格的克林頓當時確是在進行其政治生命的豪賭。

數年後小布什竟然步克林頓的後塵,也來賭它一舖。

人生如戲、戲如人生莫過於此。美國著名時評家艾德文.戴蒙(Edwin Diamond)對近50年來歷任總統評價不高,他們“演戲的天份多過治國的本事”,講得似乎正是克林頓與小布什。


世界各國的公共交通通常都由政府承擔大部份成本,因為公共交通發達,社會就能省下汽車、公路、汽油等非持續性的資源耗損。我們的政府則反其道而行,視造路為己任(因為造路的合約比較龐大),公共交通則必須由私人支付。

如果沒有一套整合的系統,也是枉然。又或者說,如果我們有一套完整有效的系統,也許不需要甚麼大鐵軌,需要的可能只是5000輛巴士、一組單一和整合的時間表、一流的服務和舒適的空間、巴士道、安全。


1986年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主布坎南(James M.Buchanan)在《赤字中的民主》的論點指出政客在做公共決策時,已愈來愈傾向於最簡單,對他們而言,也是最廉價的減稅及增加支出這種兩面討好的手法。


东姑阿都阿兹: 纳吉打通走向华府之路

他们对我说的良好管理及对抗贪污不特别感兴趣,只想知道大马政府既不承认以色列,为何大马领袖又将一大笔钱存入以色列银行。我唯有告诉他们,我无法回答他们的问题,因为我不是大马政府官员。或许,当马哈迪选择记住他光辉执政期中这怪诞的一页时,他会想对此发表意见。

纳吉当然可以亲近美国,但绝非不惜任何代价。~ 东姑阿都阿兹

http://chinese.cpiasia.net/malaysia_politics/internal_news/5474.html

2010-04-18

Pain or Pleasure

Do you want to live an extraordinary life?
Do you believe in your capacity to hold yourself to a higher standard and choose how you want to feel?
Have you ever thought of what is important to you?

Progress requires conscious choices. Step one of this was discovering who you really are, and establish your own identity and determine your life's purpose. How fantastic is it to know what you are meant to do with your life.

Many people think they have no choice about what they feel because they've been conditioned to believe that. Automatically people hear something and respond a certain way.

When you think you have no choice, there is always a choice. Before you can make those choices though, you have to understand what's controlling them... As you know, whatever people do, they always have a reason.

Give yourself the possibility of designing your own life and live the life you are meant to live. Tony always says this, "Do not settle", take control of your life, your destiny.

Remember 80% is about your psychology and 20% is skill which anybody can attain. Challenge yourself to be courageous and tap into what is rightly yours.

there are only two things stopping us... Pain or Pleasure!

There is always room in your life for thinking bigger, pushing limits, imagining the impossible.

AND REMEMBER...
LIFE WILL NEVER
BE THE SAME AGAIN!!!

Want to know what you are meant to do with your life?

2010-04-17

Compressing Decades into Days...

If you're still struggling to create the dream lifestyle you always wanted to enjoy... look no further. Having more money will not solve your problems. You need practical life strategies that are proven to work for real people in today's critical times.

As you know, the best way to learn is from experience. And experience comes from mistakes. Well, chances are that with your current income, mortgage repayments and other responsibilities you can't afford to make many mistakes.

You know that... And, that's what?s holding you back from taking the action that you know you need to take to change your life...




Not many people are willing to show you their 'ugly' side, their deficiencies or their weaknesses. But, that's the fastest way for you to learn how to make money...

Anthony Robbins coined the phrase "Compressing Decades into Days... "

Well, by spending just 1 evening with a very successful person, you will be compressing his DECADES of mistakes, painful experiences and massive success into a revealing and eye-opening, power-packed, mindset-shifting couple of hours that will change your life forever!

Your life will never be the same again.

This is the kick in the butt you need... the spark... the catalyst to help you destroy your limiting barriers and beliefs that are not serving you!

You know that you can BE, HAVE and DO more with your life! That's why you're reading this message, isn't it?

DON'T MISS THIS RARE OPPORTUNITY that could give you just what you need... the missing piece to the puzzle so you can finally live the life you want and deserve.

2010-04-16

No One Would Listen

"No One Would Listen" A True Financial Thriller by Harry Markopolos offers a unique perspective – that of the boy who kept insisting that the emperor was naked while others stood around praising the imaginary new clothes and discounting everything the boy said.

Bernard Madoff ... Hundreds of books, reports and articles talk about the events and circumstances that allowed him to cheat thousands of investors.

Harry Markopolos .. "If blank looks were dollar bills, I would have walked out of that room a rich man"

Markopolos reserves most of his criticism for the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

In fact, he rails against the regulatory body throughout the book, painting it as an organisation weighed down by incompetence, internal politics, self-interest, double standards and a shallow understanding of the very industry it supervises.

It’s telling that the epilogue of No One Would Listen is Markopolos’ list of 15 steps to transform the SEC. He wrote: “I often say, ‘We saved no one,’ which is not quite accurate, as there were a few people we warned away from Madoff; but we saved very few people. The best way to make up for that, I felt strongly, was to make sure the SEC became the agency it should be.”

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/4/17/business/5997983&sec=business

Related: http://www.corporatejourney2u.com/business/business-ethics-cases-and-the-moral-behind.html

2010-04-15

Year of digital advertising



Quarter to Quarter growth of Internet Media spending is 35.5% increase, second to Free-to-air TV rate of 35.7%. Though the market size is only 9.9 mil, if you could take 10% of it is 990k, and this is solely Malaysia.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/4/17/business/6027039&sec=business

For the first quarter of this year, Internet advertising grew 35% year-on-year to RM10mil on the websites monitored by Nielsen Malaysia.

Social marketing, search marketing and ad networks are not captured in the data.

Technology and travel players are already using digital advertising, and Prashant sees huge opportunities for finance, automotive and fast-moving consumer goods clients.

Digital is under-exploited or under-utilised. With the growing trend in consumerism, there will be a surge in social media, lifestyle and news platforms.

In a recovering economy, he says, advertisers will have more funds to invest in digital media and be more willing to explore new platforms while continuing their conventional advertising commitment.

DiGi Telecommunications Sdn Bhd head of products & segment marketing, Albern Murty, says when the company markets to consumer segments with high Internet usage, such as youths and young professionals, the telecommunication company would spend 15% to 50% of its campaign budget on digital media.

“In 2010, we will be using the digital medium to build more conversations with consumers, nurture online communities and provide even more responsive customer service than ever before. Since we launched our 3G/Broadband service for big and small screens, we have leveraged on our product value propositions and used online media to engage with our customers.”

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/4/17/business/6027152&sec=business

2010-04-14

When Prices Are Sticky Downwards

Economic inefficiency can be pretty costly to you and me

Consumers like you and me are no doubt heartened with the new strength of the ringgit against the US dollar, trading at around 3.20 to one US dollar. Not long ago, it was 3.50, representing an appreciation of around 9%.

And if the dollar goes down to 3 by year-end as many economists expect, the appreciation in less than a year, will be as high as 17%.

The question is will we consumers see a significant reduction in the prices that we pay for imported goods or are the importers going to slice the benefits all to themselves?

This is what economists mean when they refer to prices being “sticky downwards”. When costs go up, prices rise quickly, sometimes even before the costs are incurred by producers and importers. But when they go down, prices adjust slowly or not at all.

If we do get the full benefits, then our standard of living will improve and our incomes will go a longer way, and our journey to becoming a higher income country will be made easier.

For that to happen, we must ensure that our economy is efficient and that prices reflect the appreciated currency. One way of doing this is to police product prices and lean on those who are slow to bring down prices.

The other, which is more effective in the longer term, is to loosen up the procedure for imports by cutting red tape and approvals needed and simply allowing more people and companies to import.

The competition will then bring the prices down to an even keel for all products from butter and milk to cars and trucks.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/4/17/business/6074680&sec=business

2010-04-12

An Elephant in the Room

An Elephant in the Room

There is, however, an elephant in the room that most central bankers and financial regulators of advanced countries have missed. The elephant in the room is the biggest and most important issue that is before one’s eyes, but we ignore it because we do not know how to handle it. Hence, most people tip toe or move around the elephant rather than confront it.

The biggest item that is common to monetary policy, financial regulation and fiscal policy is land and real estate, including fixed investments.

The value of land and fixed assets is directly related to interest rates – the lower the interest rates, the higher the value of real estate. Real estate is the biggest collateral of bank loans and often the biggest asset of most households or firms. Land sales are also the biggest revenue for many local governments. Hence, asset bubbles are most difficult to handle because their deflation can kill banking systems and eventually become fiscal deficits.

Recently, it was revealed that US regulators did not see that real estate-related loans of the US banks accounted for 55% of total loans and asset-backed securities accounted for 74% of their debt securities holdings.

Since real estate is 225% of GDP, it was not surprising that a 20% fall in real estate caused the massive melt down in the financial derivative markets and eventually the solvency of banks.

A new generation of central bankers will have to learn new lessons from the current crisis.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/4/17/business/6054682&sec=business

> Datuk Seri Panglima Andrew Sheng is adjunct professor at Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, and Tsinghua University, Beijing. He has served in key positions at Bank Negara, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and is currently a member of Malaysia’s National Economic Advisory Council. He is the author of the book “From Asian to Global Financial Crisis”.

2010-04-11

The passing of a central banking generation

THINK ASIAN BY ANDREW SHENG

General Douglas McArthur famously said that old soldiers never die, they just fade away.

Central bankers are the generals of monetary policy, because they fight currency wars, combat inflation and defend financial stability. Retired central bankers do not fade away. Like Greenspan, they can write best selling memoirs and retire very comfortably.

It is understandable that people are complacent or are too cautious. No one likes to disturb the status quo. Almost all of us would like to wait till the next piece of information comes in to confirm our hypothesis.

The academic profession and government bureaucracies had become so specialised and fragmented that they could not see the wood from the trees. No one is looking at the earth from 30,000 ft up and asking why it does not add up. ~ Californian Prof Frithof Capra, the Turning Point

Most businesses are coordinated and done horizontally, between different departments and arms of a business or government. Coordination of different parts of government or business, with different agendas and interests, is the most complex task of modern governance. ~ A famous Harvard professor of business strategy.

What most economists and central bankers forget is that markets are all about human behaviour and such behaviour is reflexive.

Human beings do not stand still – they observe each other, anticipate or predict their competitors’ behaviour and act accordingly. The market is always watching how the government policy is implemented – they make money from regulatory and tax arbitrage.

Once they can predict how central bankers or policy makers behave, the policies begin to lose their effectiveness.

"The ruler must be silent and observant, not allowing the public to predict what he will do. If the policy is predictable, it will be negated." ~ Han Feizu

This is like a tennis player. If your opponent knows that you always like to play backhands to a certain corner, he can read you and exploit this weakness.

Goodhart’s Law - every monetary target loses its efficacy, because the market immediately changes its behaviour to negate that policy target.

As Donald Kohn admits, the trouble with the recent generation of central bankers is that they think that they know how the market functions. The fashionable thinking is that they must stick to clear monetary targeting or rules of behaviour, such as Taylor’s Rule.

Taylor’s Rule - If the market can read central bank behaviour, they can adapt and change their behaviour very quickly. For example, if there is too tight regulation, then the market moves more business either offshore where there is less regulation or they move into shadow banking, where regulators cannot see what is going on.

Monetary policy has implications on financial regulation and vice versa.

2010-04-10

The Bubble Burst

One reason we had such a massive bubble between 2004 and 2007 is because the big banks were pushing No Income No Job loans, a.k.a. subprime loans, on poor people. The banks then took these subprime loans (debt), packaged them as securities, had them rated as AAA, and sold them to pension and sovereign wealth fund as assets. The more debt that was created, the more housing prices went up, causing people to use their credit cards more and to use their home equity to pay off those credit cards. The more people spent, the more the economy boomed. Of course, we all know what happened when credit was finally maxed - the bubble burst.

The reason I say this crisis is not over is because the system is the same.

The Fed wants and needs you and me to borrow more money so that more money will be created in the economy. If the Fed tried to change the system, let's say back to the old system of the gold standard, which I doubt will ever happen, there would be a bigger crisis. So far now, as long as people think the crisis is over, more and more people will slowly come out of hiding and begin to use their credit cards again, and hopefully the crisis will end.

Rather than wait for the crisis to end,as always, I recommend you aggressively increase your financial education. Maybe take a real estate investment course, hire a coach, start to use debt now, while the bargains are plentiful, and emerge richer if and when the economy does return.

These are very difficult times. These can also be times of great opportunity. I hope you make these the best of times for you and your family.

2010-04-09

Why This Crisis Doesn't Make Sense to Normal People #2

Money Doesn't Exist Until It's Borrowed

All of the paper money in your wallet or bank account is really debt. In earlier times, paper money was backed by gold or silver. After 1971, money became an IOU from the government. Today, money doesn't exist unless someone borrows money.

For example, when you receive a credit card in the mail, the money you can borrow with it doesn't exist. All you have is a piece of plastic. But let's say you go to the store and charge $100 on your new card. At the moment, $100 brand new dollars is created. It didn't exist until the moment you used the card. And when you pay the $100 off, the $100 disappears from the economy.

The primary reason the Federal Reserve Bank is keeping interest rates near zero is because they want you and me to borrow money. They also want us to pull the money out of our savings account, because interest rates are low, and risk the money in the stock market instead.

2010-04-08

Can Obama Save The World

When President Obama passed his health reform bill, he imposed - for the first time - a payroll tax on investment income. He referred to this income as "unearned income." If he were to be technically correct, the tax code term wouldn't be unearned income but rather passive income because investor's income isn't "unearned." In reality, passive income is earned through much work. Essentially, Obama favors taxing those that work and invest in order to help those that are poor.

First off, I believe President Obama is a good man. But I simply don't think he can save the world. Why? Because the banks and money rule the world - not politicians or the government.

A big problem with America is that our government taxes income and investment. In other words, America punishes workers and those that save money to invest.

2010-04-07

Rewarding People Who Borrow for Consumption

Rewarding People Who Borrow for Consumption

The American government has a habit of rewarding people who borrow for consumption. Why? Because that's what the big banks want. They become richer as debt increases.

The powers that be have changed Obama's mind on a number of issues.

He rejected a carbon tax on fuel. Why? Because the oil companies would fight back.He's also reversed his stand on drilling for oil, allowing for off shore drilling, and he's reversed his stand on greater protection of whales. The whaling lobby must have a lot of money.And finally,rather than withdrawing troops, he's increasing troops in Afghanistan - I'm pretty sure the oil companies have a vested interest in our involvement in the Middle East.

Here's my point: While Obama is a good man, it's banks and money that rule the world.

The biggest banks and financial institutions have no allegiance to any country. The biggest banks only look out for the interests of the big banks and the ultra rich.

Just look at how the AIG scandal was handled. Instead of being punished for losing billions of dollars, they've been handed billions in taxpayer money.

Let me say this, if the rich have the power to keep protecting themselves at the expense of our laws, morals, and values, then the world is in worse shape than I imagined. Just as the Catholic Church is under fire for protecting crimes against kids, I believe the Obama administration will come under increasing criticism for protecting the biggest banks and their rich friends.

Rather than trusting Obama to save you, I continue to recommend that you save yourself.

Robert Kiyosaki

2010-04-06

To Make Money or To Make Sense

I learned very early and painfully that you have to decide at the outset whether you are trying to make money or to make sense, as they are mutually exclusive. ~ Buckminster Fuller


Very frequently I hear or read of my artifacts adjudged by critics as being "failures," because I did not get them into mass-production and "make money with them." Such money-making-as-criteria-of-success critics do not realize that money-making was never my goal.

I learned very early and painfully that you have to decide at the outset whether you are trying to make money or to make sense, as they are mutually exclusive.

I saw that nature has various categories of unique gestation lags between conception of something and its birth.

In humans, conception to birth is nine months.

In electronics, it is two years between inventive conception and industrialized production. In aeronautics, it is five years between invention and operating use.

In automobiles, it is ten years between conception and mass-production.

In railroading, the gestation is fifteen years.

In big-city skyscraper construction, the gestational lag is twenty-five years. For instance, it was twenty-five years between the accidental falling of a steel bar into fresh cement and the practical use of steel-reinforced concrete in major buildings.

Dependent on the size and situation, the period of gestation in the single-family residences varies between fifty and seventy-five years.

Because of these lags, the earlier I could introduce the conception model, the earlier its birth could take place.

Since this was clearly a half-to-three-quartersof-a-century undertaking, I saw at the outset that I best not attempt it if I was not content to go along with nature's laws.

http://bfi.org/?q=node/407

2010-04-04

Take Charge of Your Money.Take Charge of Your Life. (2)

Want to know why most Americans are losing ground in today’s economy? Is it because they are losing their jobs? That doesn’t help. Is it because they took a pay cut? No, they would be losing ground even if they got a pay raise. Is it because they don’t know HOW to save money? Actually, if they are saving money, they are losing more, faster.

Find out that you can…

* Minimize your taxes legally and significantly freeing up money so you can invest in cash-flowing assets.

* Eliminate bad debt in your life and use “good debt” to make you more money.

* Hedge inflation, the silent shark that is devouring your buying power.

* Stop funding the big bonuses on Wall Street and develop an investment strategy that provides you cash today and in the future.


The fate of the US dollar and what it means to your wealth.

the Federal Reserve has printed so much currency in the last two years, that the dollar has nowhere to go but down. After all, the more dollars that are out there, the less they are worth. That means prices will seem to go up, but what is really happening is the dollar’s value is going down.

That sounds pretty bad for people who are trying to save their way to wealth. It is bad because the more currency they save, the more buying power they lose. The good news is there are ways to hedge this. It’s what the wealthy have done since the beginning of recorded history.

I say savers are losers because when you save money, the value of that money due to inflation actually becomes less valuable. That’s why I don’t save money, I invest money for cash flow. If an asset doesn’t provide monthly income, I don’t invest.

to me the stock market is risky. People have lost trillions doing what the “experts” say: diversity, buy and hold.

it’s funny like that. Even Warren Buffett a real investment expert has been quoted saying that diversification is for people who don’t know anything about investing.

look at the stock market as just another way to invest for cash flow. And the way I do it works no matter which direction the market is going—up, down or sideways. Invest in the market for cash flow.

see the world differently, and right now nothing could be more important.

People have lost so much trusting others with their money. Your future is in your hands. Now is the time to invest in yourself so that you can invest in the future.

It takes knowledge to invest in anything, so your first investment must be in yourself. Set you on that path of financial independence and financial freedom.

Real Estate – I like real estate because I can use other people’s money—good debt—to generate cash flow.

Business – I have businesses because of the tax benefits and because they produce cash flow.

Paper Assets – Yes, stocks can be good investments once you learn how to use them to generate cash flow.

Commodities – I invest in commodities because they are a hedge against inflation

Remember, it’s all about cash flow… not capital gains!